Publications
An Overview of Global Wheat Market
Fundamentals in an Era of Climate Concerns
Aliakbar Enghiad, Danielle Ufer, Amanda M. Countryman, and Dawn D. Thilmany
Wheat is a key global commodity in terms of acreage and
tradeable value and as a staple in household diets. Many factors affect wheat
prices including climate, yields, oil prices, lagged prices, and imports. In
addition to gradually and consistently increasing global wheat demand, these
market drivers are posited to impact world prices and, ultimately, food
security. To investigate how these factors differentially influence wheat
markets, an extensive survey of literature regarding wheat market fundamentals
was conducted, as well as a trend analysis using a uniquely compiled data set
specific to significant wheat-producing areas. Previous studies show that
imports, climate, oil prices, and past prices, among other factors, have a
significant relationship with changes in the world wheat price. This study
compiles and compares these same key variables from five major wheat export
countries/regions for the time frame from 1980 to 2013.
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